Israelis vote Tuesday in a race for 120 seats where neither side is projected to win a majority

Israeli voters go to the polls on Tuesday to choose a new parliament, with polls indicating that neither the government bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor the opposition alliance will secure the 61 seats needed to form a majority. The tight margins suggest the result will likely require complex coalition talks, the formation of a minority government, or a repeat election. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, described an indecisive outcome as the most probable result.

The election is the first held since the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, which authorities have called the deadliest day in the country’s history since 1948. Fighting continues in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, and Israel has engaged in two direct conflicts with Iran. Netanyahu argues he needs more time to complete these military operations and to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

President Donald Trump offered a full-throated endorsement of Netanyahu last week, warning that if Israel has a different leader, the United States might have to conduct the war against Iran itself. Trump stated, "If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so." Netanyahu has since used this support to argue that only he can manage the relationship with the United States on the nuclear threat.

Netanyahu’s Likud party is running on a coalition of right-wing and religious parties. His campaign slogan, which rhymes in Hebrew, translates to: "Either right wing or Palestine, either right wing or a nuclear bomb." Over the weekend, he posted an AI-generated image of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv on social media to emphasize the threat from Iran.

Opposing Netanyahu is a diverse coalition of Arab, center, and left parties united only by their desire to remove him from power. The front-runner to lead this group is former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, who heads the centrist Yashar party. Eisenkot lost his son and two nephews in the Gaza war and served on the war cabinet. He accused Netanyahu of relying on "a campaign of fear-mongering, lies, and threats" and promised to launch a state inquiry into the intelligence failures of Oct. 7, a move Netanyahu has blocked.

Two new parties focused on demanding that ultra-Orthodox men serve in the military are hovering around the threshold to enter parliament. Their performance could tip the balance. Arab Israelis, who make up about 20% of the population, are also a critical variable. Plesner noted that higher Arab turnout makes it harder for Netanyahu to form a government with his current far-right allies. Jehad Abomoch, a cafe owner in Baqa al Gharbiya, said many Arab Israelis feel they have "no hope, no future" under the current government.

If no side wins a clear majority, parties may break promises to switch sides, a common occurrence in Israeli politics. The opposition could also seek to form a minority government by winning a plurality of seats and abstaining from votes against its formation. If that fails, Israel will hold new elections, a scenario that occurred four times between 2019 and 2022.

Voters are casting ballots in a country still at war, with the outcome potentially leaving the nation without a stable government for weeks. The final tally will depend on turnout in specific demographic groups and the performance of the two new parties challenging the ultra-Orthodox alliance.