Divided Israel Heads Into a Knife-Edge Election After Three Years of War

Israelis vote on Tuesday in a general election that follows three years of regional war and finds the country deeply split. Polls published on Friday put the governing coalition and the main opposition bloc almost level. About half a million people are due to vote for the first time, and some 70,000 Israelis are reportedly flying home from abroad to take part. On Saturday night, large crowds of opposition supporters gathered in central Tel Aviv to demand a change of government.

The race has been shaped by a newcomer to politics, Gadi Eisenkot. A former military chief of staff from a working-class Moroccan background, he is known for a calm, low-drama style, and some have called him a "non-politician". His centrist Yashar party has often edged Netanyahu's Likud for first place in recent polls. Israeli law bars publication of polls in the final days, so Friday's was the last. Because power in Israel depends on assembling a coalition, and the predicted result is too close to call, many voters see the contest as existential.

At a community centre for Ethiopian Jews in Ramle last week, a voter named David said Eisenkot "looks you in the eye" and listens. Eisenkot, whose son was killed in the Gaza war, presents himself as coming from the periphery rather than the wealthy urban elite. His origins made headlines earlier this month when a pro-Netanyahu speaker used a racist slur against him during a TV debate. Eisenkot told the Ramle crowd the vote is mainly about the identity of the state, and whether it will be Jewish, democratic, liberal, tolerant and egalitarian.

Opposition parties accuse Netanyahu's government of endangering democracy, citing its attempts to curb the judiciary and its refusal to set up a state commission of inquiry into the 7 October attacks. Netanyahu argues the Supreme Court would be biased against him. Eisenkot and other opposition leaders have promised such an inquiry, which a recent survey found is backed by more than 70% of Jewish Israelis. Eisenkot has also pledged to enforce court rulings on drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews into military service.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, has campaigned on security under the slogan "No Surrender". He portrays his rivals as weak and warns that Jewish opposition parties might ally with Arab parties, who represent roughly one-fifth of the population. He says the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran have reduced existential threats. Supporter Shlomi Bashar, in a Jerusalem market cafe, said Netanyahu bears "a certain responsibility" for 7 October but has since changed the Middle East. Still, Netanyahu's traditional base is projected to thin, with some voters drifting to the opposition and others to parties further right.

In Sderot, on the Gaza border, civil defence chief Lt Col (Res) Eyal Hajbi, who lost friends and colleagues in the attacks, said his Likud-voting family is now backing Itamar Ben Gvir's Jewish Power. Ben Gvir has courted young people with attention-grabbing social media campaigns, and a Yedioth Ahronoth poll published on 9 October suggested more than 16% of first-time voters would choose far-right parties. Four 18-year-olds from a nearby religious college said they would vote for Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism. One of them, Aviad Elmahach, said young people understand that only "an iron fist" will work. Polls suggest fewer than 10% of Israelis are undecided.

Attitudes differ in Nir Oz, a kibbutz where 47 people were killed and 76 taken hostage on 7 October, and where residents are now returning. Galia Pauker says she cannot live with this government and will back Eisenkot. Her son Gal, who opened a wine cafe by his vineyard, is choosing between Eisenkot and Yair Golan's left-leaning Democrats. He said Israel's bigger problems are economic and social, and that 7 October did not change how Israelis see themselves.

The gap between government and opposition on some major issues is narrower than it appears. Eisenkot has vowed to end Hamas rule in Gaza within 18 months, through a US-led plan or military means. The main opposition leaders back some form of settlement in the occupied West Bank, which is illegal under international law, and none has openly endorsed full Palestinian statehood, which Netanyahu has vowed to block.

Tuesday's vote could end in deadlock, with Arab parties projected to win enough seats to decide who governs. All but one of the Jewish opposition parties have so far rejected working with either Arab bloc. With Netanyahu warning of fresh threats from Iran, opposition voices raising fears of disruption to the ballot, and rights activists warning of more settler violence in the West Bank, instability at home could test Israel's democracy and its security at once.