Hispanic voters swing 20 points to Democrats in key swing states

Hispanic voters in Texas dropped their support for Republican candidates by roughly 20 percentage points compared to the 2024 presidential election, a shift that helped Democrats capture the state’s Senate seat and governorship. In 2024, nearly 40 percent of Hispanic voters backed President Donald Trump. In the 2026 midterms, only about one-third supported a Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives. The swing was not limited to Texas. Democratic candidates outperformed the 2024 baseline by an average of 11 percentage points in House districts where at least 25 percent of the voting-age population is Hispanic. In counties with Hispanic majorities, Democratic Senate candidates beat their party’s 2024 performance by more than 15 percentage points.

The change reflects a two-year trend where the demographic moved from a near split in the 2024 presidential race to a decisive lean toward Democrats. Two years ago, the group was essentially divided in the general election. In 2026, that division collapsed. In Texas, every county voted more Democratic than it did in 2024. The larger the Hispanic population in a county, the greater the shift toward the Democratic Party.

James Talarico won the Texas Senate race with approximately 70 percent support from Hispanic voters. His Republican opponent, Ken Paxton, received only 30 percent. Among Hispanic voters under 65 in Texas, the shift toward Talarico was approximately 20 percentage points. In the Florida Senate race, Republican Ashley Moody won reelection by a narrow margin. However, fewer than half of Hispanic voters supported her. In 2024, Trump won 55 percent of the Hispanic vote in the state.

In Kansas, the demographic shift contributed to a historic upset. Three Hispanic-majority counties in southwestern Kansas, Finney, Ford, and Seward, voted heavily for Trump in 2024. In 2026, they turned to Adam Hamilton, who became the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state in nearly a century. Voter participation in those three counties jumped 27 percent compared to 2022.

Democrats also made gains along the U.S.-Mexico border. For the first time since 2008, Democrats won every House district touching the border. These victories spanned Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California. Fourteen Hispanic Democrats were elected to the House for the first time. Ten of these new members won in districts previously held by Republicans or drawn to favor the Republican Party. Linda Sanchez, chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ campaign arm, noted that the caucus will have its largest membership in history.

Voters cited economic anxiety and government corruption as primary drivers for their shift. Gabe Vasquez, a Democrat, won his New Mexico House district by 17 percentage points. In 2022, he had won the same race by less than one point. Vasquez stated, “Mostramos nuestro poder y demostramos nuestra fuerza durante esta elección.” Johnny Garcia, a police officer who won a new House district near San Antonio, credited the party for focusing on local issues. “La única manera de que lo logramos fue enfocándonos en los temas que más le importaban a la gente,” Garcia said.

Immigration enforcement played a major role in voter sentiment. While Trump’s promise to arrest and deport unauthorized immigrants was popular during his campaign, voters in 2026 expressed frustration with the aggressive implementation of those policies. Elton Reid, a 44-year-old voter in Allentown, Pennsylvania, said, “Todo el mundo votó por él y ahora él viene y los encarcela.” Reid voted for Democrat Bob Brooks, who defeated Republican Ryan McKenzie in a competitive district.

Matt Tuerk, the Democratic mayor of Allentown, warned that the party must remain vigilant. “Vieron una traición de Trump después de que le dieron una oportunidad en 2024,” Tuerk said. “Y se fueron con los demócratas, y ahora les están dando una oportunidad.” He added, “Pero, están en período de prueba.” Leticia Gutierrez, who won a Houston-area House district, said voters want representatives who understand their specific economic concerns. “Voy a llevar todas esas cosas conmigo a Washington para poder tener esa perspectiva,” Gutierrez said.

The 2026 results mark the first time since 2008 that Democrats hold all border districts. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus will expand its numbers to a record high. In Texas, Gina Hinojosa is set to become governor. Cindy Candia, a 56-year-old resident of the Rio Grande Valley, noted the historic nature of the victory. “Es mujer, es hispana, es de Brownsville. No creo que nadie pensara que Texas votaría por eso, por ese tipo de persona,” Candia said.