Louisiana home losses to hit $11.4 billion by 2050

Louisiana homeowners face an average annual loss of $6.7 billion from extreme weather today. A report released Wednesday by Cotality projects that figure will climb to $11.4 billion by 2050. The increase is driven largely by a rise in inland flooding.

Cotality, a property data and analytics firm, ranked Louisiana as the most exposed state using a model that measures the severity and likelihood of severe storms. Mississippi and Florida follow as the next most vulnerable due to hurricane risk. The analysis expects total housing market losses in those two states to grow by roughly 62% and 54% respectively over the next quarter century.

The financial toll is already substantial across the country. Thirty states currently report billions of dollars in annual losses. In raw dollar terms, California and Texas lead the nation. California averages $18.2 billion in losses per year, while Texas averages $11.5 billion. Cotality projects these figures will reach $22.4 billion and $16.5 billion respectively by 2050.

Dr. Howard Botts, chief scientist at Cotality, noted that risk is not limited to coastal areas. "When people think of extreme weather, they usually think of places like California, Texas and Florida, but the most severe concentrations of risk aren't always where you'd expect," Botts said. Residents of states far from the coast, such as West Virginia, are expected to face a mounting toll from inland flooding.

Insurance companies are reacting to the rising costs. Premiums are increasing and some carriers are exiting high-risk markets entirely. This trend leaves more homeowners exposed to out-of-pocket costs after a disaster. The data suggests that even the ten least exposed states will see weather-related losses rise nearly 38% by 2050. The ten riskiest states are projected to see a 47% increase.

"It's important to remember that 'low risk' doesn't mean 'no risk'," Botts said. "Every state has its own mix of perils and resilience, but wherever a state lands in our ranking, weather losses are projected to rise." A separate report from climate risk modeling firm First Street earlier this year found that short-duration, high-impact events have produced $794 billion in insurance payouts over the last 25 years. This total exceeds losses from flooding, earthquakes, and drought combined.

The report details the specific perils driving these numbers. Flooding and hurricanes are expected to drive the largest share of national losses in the coming decades. Cotality's analysis provides a state-by-state breakdown of these projected costs through 2050.