Nervousness Grips Likud as Nonprofit Turnout Campaigns Target Netanyahu

A deep divide has emerged within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party as election day approaches, with members arguing over the likelihood of victory against a surging opposition turnout effort. While some leaders express confidence, others fear that organized campaigns aimed at mobilizing Netanyahu’s critics will shift the balance of power on Tuesday.

The optimism among party loyalists rests largely on internal data from Shlomo Filber, who manages Likud’s polling. A party source described the current mood as polarized. "We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so," the source said. Regarding the reliability of the data, the source noted, "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other."

The primary source of anxiety is a coordinated campaign by nonprofits and organizations directing large sums of money to get out the vote for rival parties. Party sources described these efforts as a wide-ranging operation that ran throughout the election period without direct party funding. The activities reportedly included social media pushes, physical signage, field events, transportation for Arab voters, and campaigns to encourage Israelis living abroad to return for the vote. One Likud official called it "the nonprofits affair on steroids," arguing that these groups provide an illicit support network outside standard party financing rules, though no documentation for specific funding amounts or legality claims was provided.

Likud officials also criticized the Central Elections Committee for focusing heavily on campaign video limits and public resource usage while overlooking the work of these outside organizations. The party is preparing a substantial ground operation for Election Day to prevent right-wing votes from drifting to smaller slates, despite restrictions on gathering information from polling stations.

Efforts to consolidate the right-wing vote have seen mixed results. Talks to convince Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, leader of the People of Israel party, to leave the race failed. Winter, a former commander of the Givati Brigade, remains in the contest after Rabbi Eli Sadan issued a statement of support. However, Likud successfully courted the Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, which withdrew from the race following discussions that included potential legislation for deputy minister roles. The party is also courting backers of the joint ticket led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha.

A survey published days before the vote indicated that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided. The election is scheduled for October 27, a date that allows the current government to complete its full term.