Netanyahu's Coalition and the Opposition Enter Israel's Election Tied

Israelis vote Tuesday in the first national election held since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, a contest shaped by the war in Gaza, coalition arithmetic and the political future of Benjamin Netanyahu. The Knesset has 120 seats, and a bloc needs 61 to command a majority.

Two lists are competing. The governing coalition is anchored by Netanyahu's Likud party, alongside United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi, and Religious Zionism-Zehut. The opposition brings together four Jewish-led movements: Yashar, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot; the Democrats, led by Yair Golan; Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman; and the Together alliance of former prime minister Naftali Bennett, which opposition leader Yair Lapid has joined. Any party must clear 3.25 percent of the vote to enter parliament.

Polling ended with a publication ban on Friday. A survey released by the public broadcaster KAN before that ban projected 52 seats for the opposition alliance and 50 for Netanyahu's bloc, leaving the remaining seats with unaffiliated parties such as Ra'am and the Joint List, both Arab-majority lists. Neither bloc has agreed to partner with those parties, a condition that could produce a minority government or send Israel back to the polls.

About 7.3 million citizens can vote, including roughly 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Turnout in that community could reach 60 percent, and at 65 percent turnout the Arab parties could win as many as 15 seats; campaigners are pushing for 70 percent, a level not reached in decades. The Central Elections Committee voted last month to bar the Joint List and Ra'am, and the Supreme Court reversed that decision. The court did remove Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh from the race over an article that called the October 7 attacks "an important historical event."

Voters are asking who bears responsibility for security failures reported before October 7, why ultra-Orthodox men are exempt from military service, and why Netanyahu has pursued judicial changes that critics say weaken the courts. Mairav Zonszein of the International Crisis Group said secular and liberal opposition factions view this as "the last chance to save Israeli democracy."

The campaign runs against a shift in Israel's international position. Allies have sanctioned settlements in the occupied West Bank, and governments have condemned strikes in Gaza and Lebanon. At the UN General Assembly on September 24, dozens of envoys walked out of Netanyahu's speech.

Netanyahu has been prime minister for more than 15 of the last 17 years. He faces an ICC arrest warrant for war crimes, corruption charges he has contested since 2019, and a trial that could end in a prison sentence if he is convicted. Roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem cannot vote in the election determining who controls their borders, movement and legal status.