Polls show 44% of Americans see finances as stable ahead of midterms
Democratic gains in the House and Senate appear likely as economic anxiety and approval ratings weigh on the president's party.
By Talia Bennett ·
A new NPR, PBS News, and Marist poll indicates that 44% of Americans believe their personal finances have remained mostly the same. Another 38% report that their economic situations have worsened. Only 15% say their financial standing has improved. These figures provide a snapshot of voter sentiment as the country approaches the midterm elections.
The economic backdrop remains tense for President Trump. Voters cite rising prices for goods and energy, which the source attributes to tariffs and the war with Iran. While most presidents receive disproportionate blame for economic conditions, the source notes that recent policy choices have directly increased costs. The labor market is described as middling, and interest rates have climbed, making home and car purchases more difficult for millions.
The wealth gap has widened, with affluent Americans benefiting from stock portfolios dominated by artificial intelligence companies. Conversely, regular Americans are turning against AI data centers and struggling with inflation that outpaces wage growth. This divide has angered swing voters and energized Democrats, particularly in opposition to hard-line immigration enforcement and cuts to domestic spending programs such as Medicaid.
Historical data suggests Republicans face a steep climb. Only twice since World War II has the president's party gained House seats in a midterm election. The average loss is 26 seats. When a president's approval rating falls below 50%, as Trump's has, the average loss increases to 35 seats. Trump has acknowledged these historical trends at multiple campaign events.
Democrats have performed well in special elections and 2025 off-year contests. They are favored to win control of the House and are within striking distance of taking the Senate. However, structural challenges remain. The Cook Political Report lists approximately 30 fewer competitive districts this year than in 2018. Mid-decade redistricting has granted Republicans an estimated eight-seat advantage, a benefit that may be reduced if Latino voters in South Texas turn out in high numbers.
The Democratic base shows signs of restlessness despite strong engagement from self-identified democratic socialists. In the latest poll, 44% of respondents said their vote was primarily against Trump, while 21% voted for him. This dynamic sets the stage for potential internal conflicts within the Democratic Party as it prepares for the 2028 presidential cycle, which is expected to begin announcements as early as January or February.
Election night results may take days or weeks to finalize, particularly in close Senate races. Trump has already positioned himself to challenge the results, a strategy he employed after the 2020 election. A quarter of Republicans in the poll said their candidate likely should not accept the results. This leaves room for misinformation if the outcome is not clear immediately.
Republican candidates have largely dropped mentions of Trump from their advertisements, a shift from the primaries when references were frequent. The president remains a polarizing figure, essential for base turnout but often toxic for swing voters. Without a strong turnout in red states, a one or two-seat Democratic pickup in the Senate could expand to six or seven seats.
