Eisenkot tasked with forming Israel's next government

Gadi Eisenkot faces a difficult path to the premiership after President Isaac Herzog designated him to form the next Israeli government. The decision arrived late Saturday, concluding days of consultations with parliamentary parties following the October 27 election. Eisenkot, Netanyahu's primary rival, must now negotiate a coalition that neither candidate secured on their own in the 120-seat Knesset.

The election results left the political field fragmented. Netanyahu’s coalition dropped from a peak of 68 seats to 53. Eisenkot’s opposition bloc captured 48 seats, while Arab-led parties won 19. Neither side reached the 61-seat threshold required to govern. Herzog determined that Eisenkot had the best chance of building a majority because Arab-led parties expressed willingness to support him.

Eisenkot now has 28 days to form a government, with the possibility of a two-week extension. If he fails, Netanyahu may receive a chance to assemble a coalition. Should both leaders fail, Israel will return to the polls in early spring. Eisenkot will officially receive the mandate during a ceremony on Sunday. New members of the Knesset will be sworn in on Tuesday evening. Netanyahu and his cabinet will remain in office as a caretaker government with limited powers until a new coalition takes office.

Eisenkot’s former role as army chief shaped his campaign, which centered on ending military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox. He stated that any coalition partner must support mandatory military or civil service. The ultra-Orthodox parties, who served in Netanyahu’s outgoing government, seek to preserve these exemptions to protect their religious lifestyle. United Torah Judaism, an ultra-Orthodox party, has left the door open to cooperating with Eisenkot, anticipating its status as a swing vote.

Arab-led parties present another potential path, though one fraught with internal opposition within Eisenkot’s bloc. The Joint List, which broke with decades of precedent, said it will support Eisenkot from outside the coalition to end Netanyahu’s hold on power. The Ra’am party, the only Arab party to have joined a governing coalition, will also support him. Eisenkot has set conditions for Arab parties, including recognition of Israel as a Jewish state and declaring Hamas a terrorist organization. The conservative Yisrael Beytenu party has already ruled out joining a coalition with Arab-led parties.

Netanyahu has challenged the election results, claiming the vote was stolen by Arab parties that rallied their supporters. He has offered little evidence for these claims. The Central Elections Commission and Herzog declared the vote valid, noting that even if wrongdoing were found, it did not significantly impact the result. Shin Bet has launched an investigation into possible foreign interference. Netanyahu called for a national unity government with Eisenkot on Saturday night, but such power-sharing agreements are often fragile and prone to collapse.

Eisenkot vowed to form a government as quickly as possible. He must navigate the complex dynamics between his own bloc, the ultra-Orthodox, and the Arab-led parties. Each alliance requires compromises that could break campaign promises. The next six weeks will determine whether Eisenkot can bridge these gaps or if Israel returns to the ballot box.