Israel Election: Netanyahu Survives October 7

The Israeli public chose stability over a change of government in the October 2026 elections.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party emerged as the largest bloc, securing the upper hand in the political landscape. His coalition holds 53 seats, while the opposition bloc controlled by Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot holds 67 seats. This split leaves neither side with the 61 seats required to form a majority government without outside support. Netanyahu is positioned to seek a unity government, potentially drawing in parts of Eisenkot’s party as well as the factions of Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman.

The path for Eisenkot is more complex because his majority relies on the 19 seats held by Arab parties. Some leaders of these parties have declined to label Hamas a terrorist organization, and others reject the definition of Israel as a Jewish state. If coalition talks stall, Netanyahu may serve as caretaker prime minister for up to six months, during which he would retain authority over life and death decisions. A second election would occur under conditions that were favorable to the opposition in the current cycle, including a high turnout and the absence of small parties siphoning votes.

The campaign centered on the events of October 7, 2023, rather than Netanyahu’s legal cases. Former attorney general Avichai Mandelblit testified in Netanyahu’s trial during the final two weeks of the campaign, a development that distracted from the legal narrative. The opposition focused on Netanyahu’s knowledge of the attack and his physical state at the time of the 6:29 a.m. invasion. However, voters also credited his leadership for the military successes achieved over the following three years against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.

About three hours after polls closed on Tuesday night, Eisenkot addressed supporters in Tel Aviv. He declared that the Israeli public voted against the continuation of Netanyahu’s term. While the numbers supported his claim of a majority against the prime minister, the composition of that majority complicates the formation of a government. The change bloc itself holds only 48 seats, meaning it must bridge a gap with parties that may hold divergent views on Zionism and national identity.

The election also marked a shift in the Knesset’s demographics. Nearly 50 new members will take their seats, including at least 12 individuals with direct personal ties to October 7 through bereavement or captivity. A new political list led by Moti Leitner entered the fray, advocating for greater integration of the haredi community into the workforce and education system. Although the list received fewer than 10,000 votes, it represented a distinct break from established haredi parties. Pre-election polls from Channels 11, 12, and 13 had predicted the opposition would hold more than 55 seats, a projection that missed the actual distribution by a wide margin.

The results suggest that the immediate political consequences of the war did not force a change in leadership, but they may alter the political landscape over time. Netanyahu’s bloc recorded its weakest showing in nine elections since 2009, indicating an electoral cost for the October 7 surprise. The presence of a large freshman class and the emergence of new haredi voices indicate that the political processes triggered by the national trauma are still unfolding.