Netanyahu Leads but Lacks Majority, Prompting Berlin Caution

Two days after Israel held its parliamentary elections, German political leaders continue to hesitate in offering a formal response. The hesitation stems from an inconclusive result in which no single bloc secured a clear path to a governing majority in the Knesset.

Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing coalition, which includes religious hardliners, currently holds a lead over the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Despite this lead, the gap is too narrow for either side to form a government independently. Martin Giese, the spokesperson for German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, declined to provide a detailed assessment at a Wednesday press conference in Berlin. He confirmed that Germany maintains contact with Israeli officials through its ambassador.

The uncertainty in Jerusalem creates immediate pressure on German aid efforts in the Gaza Strip. Development Minister Reem Alabali Radovan warned that winter conditions will make survival difficult for residents there. She stated that aid organizations require more opportunities to deliver assistance and that this work cannot wait for coalition negotiations to conclude. Radovan also addressed rising violence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, noting that the current interim government must address the situation.

German diplomatic posture has shifted in recent months. Wadephul recently emphasized that Israel has an obligation under international law to protect the rights of Palestinians. This follows a military operation near Hebron that displaced approximately 3,000 Palestinians. The German government has moved away from unconditional support for Netanyahu's policies, though it has not yet decided to recognize a Palestinian state, a step taken by some other European nations.

Berlin hopes the new government will exclude far-right figures such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Jurgen Hardt, a foreign policy expert for the Christian Democratic Union in the Bundestag, expressed a preference for a centrist coalition. He noted that the Arab-majority parties made large gains in this election and may play a decisive role in forming a government. Netanyahu's bloc has ruled out partnering with these parties, while Eisenkot's bloc has not yet confirmed its willingness to do so.

The United Arab List, a party within the opposition camp, included a Jewish candidate and expressed readiness to work with Eisenkot to unseat Netanyahu. Hardt suggested that a minority government supported by parties representing Arab Israelis is a viable option. He attributed the opposition's mobilization to Netanyahu's campaign, which focused heavily on Arab Israelis. Omid Nouripour, the vice president of the Bundestag, described the election outcome as good news for Israeli democracy following recent internal turmoil.